Can Juniper Networks stock continue to outperform the S&P?

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Stock Juniper Networks Inc. (NYSE: JNPR) is down about 4% over the past month (twenty-one trading days), outperforming the S&P 500 which is down 6.1% over the period. If you also look at the change over the past five and ten days, the stock returned -1.6% and -10%, performing a bit better than the broader markets. Juniper’s recent Q1 2022 results saw revenue decline from $1.07 billion in Q1 21 to $1.17 billion in Q1 22. However, COGS and other operating expenses increased at a much slower pace, and operating profit more than doubled from $27.8 million to $58.5 million during this period. Combined with an increase in the tax benefit and no debt extinguishment charges compared to Q1 2021, net income reached $55.7 million in Q1 2022, driving EPS to 0, $17.

Now, is JNPR stock ready to continue its rally or can we expect a pullback? We believe there is a decent 61% chance of JNPR stock rising over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of stock price trends over the past ten years. See our analysis on JNPR Stock Upside Chance. For more details on the company’s historical returns and comparison with its peers, see Juniper Networks Stock Performance. Additionally, for more details on JNPR’s earnings and peer comparison, see Juniper Networks Revenue Comparison.

Twenty-one-day: JNPR -4.1%, vs. S&P500 -6.1%; Market outperformed

(26% probability event; 61% upside probability over the next 21 days)

  • JNPR Stock lost 4.1% over the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) down 6.1%
  • A change of -4.1% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 26% probability event, which has occurred 644 out of 2516 times over the past 10 years
  • Of these 644 instances, the stock has seen positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 393 occasions.
  • This points to a 61% chance the stock will rise over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten days: JNPR -10%, vs. S&P500 -11%; Market outperformed

(2% probability event; 69% upside probability over the next 10 days)

  • JNPR Stock fell 10% over the past ten trading days (two weeks), versus a broader market (S&P500) down 11%
  • A change of -10% or more over ten trading days is a 2% probability event, which has occurred 62 out of 2,517 times over the past 10 years
  • Of these 62 instances, the stock has seen positive movement over the next ten trading days on 43 occasions.
  • This points to a 69% chance the stock will rise over the next ten trading days

Five-day: JNPR -1.6%, vs. S&P500 -2.4%; Market outperformed

(27% probability event; 57% upside probability over the next five days)

  • JNPR Stock fell 1.6% over a five-day trading period ending 06/17/2022, versus the broader market (S&P500) which was down 2.4% over this period.
  • A change of -1.6% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 27% probability event, which has occurred 670 out of 2517 times in the last ten years
  • Of these 670 instances, the stock has seen positive movement over the next five trading days on 381 occasions.
  • This points to a 57% chance the stock will rise over the next five trading days

Stock prices have fallen precipitously across all sectors over the past few months and we are now in a bear market for the first time since March 2020, when the Covid-19 outbreak triggered a stock market crash. We capture key Dow Jones trends during and after major stock market crashes in our interactive dashboard analysis,’Comparison of stock market crashes.’

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