Bitcoin (BTC) continues to face an uphill battle near the $20,000 psychological level as bulls and bears attempt to assert their supremacy. Trading firm QCP Capital said in its latest market circular that funding rates in derivatives markets were stable and bearish conditions were fading.
Another silver lining for Bitcoin bulls is that Bitcoin miners may capitulate as the recent price drop has made some mining machines unprofitable. Data from Arcane Research shows that public bitcoin mining companies that only sold 30% of their mining production from January to April this year dumped 100% of their bitcoin production in May. Some analysts believe that the miners’ exit was a bullish signal.
However, one metric suggests that Bitcoin may not have bottomed out. Historically, Bitcoin signals a bottom when less than 50% of Bitcoin addresses remain profitable. Data from Glassnode as of June 20 shows that 56.2% of Bitcoin addresses are profitable, raising concerns of another drop.
Could Bitcoin and altcoins support the recovery or will the bears push the price down? Let’s study the charts of the top 10 cryptocurrencies to find out.
The bulls are trying to initiate a rally in Bitcoin, but the long wick of the June 21st candlestick suggests that the bears are unwilling to give up their edge.
A small silver lining is that the bulls are buying the lows at $20,000 on June 22nd. If the price rebounds from the current level, buyers will attempt to push the BTC/USDT pair above $22,000. This could open the doors for a possible rally towards the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) ($24,076).
This level is likely to act as strong resistance, but if the bulls overcome this barrier, the next stop could be the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) ($28,678).
This bullish view could be negated if the price declines and breaks below $19,600. This could improve the outlook for a retest of the June 18th intraday low of $17,622.
Ether (ETH) is bouncing off the intraday low of $881 on June 18 from $1,194 on June 21, suggesting that the bears have not given up yet and are continuing to sell on rallies.
If the bulls do not give much ground from the current level, the ETH/USDT pair could again attempt a rally towards the 20-day EMA ($1,368). This is an important level to watch as bears tend to defend the 20-day EMA during downtrends.
If the price drops from the 20-day EMA, the bears will again try to pull the pair to $1,000 and then to $881. A break below this level could signal the resumption of the downtrend. On the other hand, if the bulls push the price above the 20-day EMA, the pair could hit $1,700.
BNB has been holding above the crucial $211 support since June 19, but bulls are struggling to drive the price higher. The long wick on the June 21st candlestick suggests that the bears continue to sell on the rallies.
If the bears drop the price below $211, the BNB/USDT pair could drop to $200 and then to the June 18 intraday low of $183. This is an important level to watch because if the price goes below it, the pair could drop to $150.
Conversely, if the price bounces off $211 or $200, it will suggest that the bulls continue to buy on the bottom. The bulls will then make another attempt to breach the overhead obstacle at the 20-day EMA. If successful, it will suggest that the break below $211 may have been a bear trap.
Cardano’s (ADA) rebound from the $0.44 to $0.40 support zone broke down near the 20-day EMA ($0.51) on June 21. This suggests that the bears continue to defend the level aggressively.
The sellers will now attempt to push the price down below the support zone. If they succeed, it will suggest the start of the next leg of the downtrend. The ADA/USDT pair could then slide to $0.33 and later to $0.30.
Alternatively, if the price bounces off the support zone again, it will suggest that the bulls continue to accumulate on the lows. The buyers will then make another attempt to push the pair above the moving averages and start a rally to $0.70.
Ripple (XRP) has been ranging between $0.28 and $0.35 for the past few days. This suggests a state of equilibrium between bulls and bears.
The longer the time spent inside the range, the stronger the break will be. If the price continues to decline and breaks below the range support at $0.28, it could suggest the resumption of the downtrend.
The RSI is showing positive divergence, indicating that the bearish momentum may be weakening. If the bulls are pushing the price above $0.35, this will suggest the start of a new upswing. The XRP/USDT pair could then reach the 50-day SMA ($0.41) and later rally to $0.45.
Solana’s (SOL) recovery on June 21st moved above the 20-day EMA ($36), but the long wick on the day’s candlestick shows that the bears are selling at higher levels.
The price remains below the June 22 20-day EMA but the bulls haven’t given much ground. This suggests that buyers are expecting a break above the 20-day EMA. If that happens, the SOL/USDT pair could rally to the 50-day SMA ($47) where the bears could once again mount a strong defense.
Conversely, if the price fails to break above the 20-day EMA, it could attract profit bookings from short-term traders. This can pull the pair to $30 and later to $27.
Dogecoin (DOGE) started a rally on June 19 and reached the 20-day EMA ($0.06) on June 21. Although the bulls pushed the price above the 20-day EMA, they were unable to sustain the higher levels.
This may have attracted profits from short-term bulls and selling from aggressive bears. The sellers will now attempt to drop the DOGE/USDT pair below $0.06 and challenge vital support at $0.05.
Alternatively, if the price rebounds from $0.06, it will suggest that sentiment has shifted from selling on the rallies to buying on the declines. This could increase the possibility of a break above the 20-day EMA. If that happens, the pair could rally to the 50-day SMA ($0.08).
Related: Bitcoin price drops below $20,000 as whales send 50,000 BTC to exchanges
Polkadot (DOT) turned down the 20-day EMA ($8.20) on June 21, suggesting that the bears continue to defend the level aggressively. The sellers will now try to pull the price below the immediate support at $7.30.
If successful, the DOT/USDT pair could fall to the crucial support at $6.36. This is an important level to watch as a break below could trigger the next leg of the downtrend at $4.23.
On the contrary, if the price rebounds from $7.30, it will suggest that the bulls are trying to form a higher low. This could improve the outlook for a break above the 20-day EMA. The pair could then rally to the 50-day SMA ($9.78). If this level is also broken, the next stop could be $12.44.
The bulls pushed UNUS SED LEO (LEO) above the descending channel resistance line on June 22, but the long wick on today’s candlestick suggests that the bears are selling at higher levels.
The 20-day EMA ($5.29) has started to rise and the RSI is near the overbought territory, indicating that the bulls have the upper hand. If the price holds above the channel, it could open the doors for a possible upside to $6.50.
Conversely, if the price fails to hold above the channel, traders can take profits and this could pull the LEO/USD pair towards the 20-day EMA. Such a move will suggest that the pair might remain stuck inside the channel for a few more days.
The failure to drive the Shiba Inu (SHIB) below $0.000007 may have tempted short sellers to book profits and aggressive bulls to start buying. This may have resulted in the strong June 21 rally.
Traders pushed the price above the 20-day EMA ($0.000010) but were unable to break through the hurdle at the 50-day SMA ($0.000012). This suggests that the bears are defending the level aggressively.
The sellers are trying to bring the price back below the 20-day EMA. If they succeed, it will suggest that the recent rally may have been a bearish rally. The SHIB/USDT pair could then drop towards $0.000007.
The 20-day EMA is flattening out and the RSI is near the midpoint suggesting limited short-term action. Bulls will need to push and hold the price above the 50-day SMA to signal a potential trend change.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of TNZT. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.
Market data is provided by HitBTC swap.